Is Artificial Intelligence the great filter that makes advanced technical civilisations rare in the universe? (2405.00042v1)

Abstract: This study examines the hypothesis that the rapid development of AI, culminating in the emergence of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), could act as a "Great Filter" that is responsible for the scarcity of advanced technological civilisations in the universe. It is proposed that such a filter emerges before these civilisations can develop a stable, multiplanetary existence, suggesting the typical longevity (L) of a technical civilization is less than 200 years. Such estimates for L, when applied to optimistic versions of the Drake equation, are consistent with the null results obtained by recent SETI surveys, and other efforts to detect various technosignatures across the electromagnetic spectrum. Through the lens of SETI, we reflect on humanity's current technological trajectory - the modest projections for L suggested here, underscore the critical need to quickly establish regulatory frameworks for AI development on Earth and the advancement of a multiplanetary society to mitigate against such existential threats. The persistence of intelligent and conscious life in the universe could hinge on the timely and effective implementation of such international regulatory measures and technological endeavours.

• The paper's main finding is that rapid AI and ASI evolution may serve as a Great Filter, significantly reducing the lifespan of advanced technological civilizations.
• It employs theoretical models and Drake Equation estimates to argue that a civilization’s longevity may be under 200 years due to AI-induced existential risks.
• The analysis underscores the urgency for international regulatory frameworks to manage AI developments and mitigate its potential threats.

The Role of Artificial Intelligence as a Potential Great Filter in Limiting Advanced Civilizations

The paper presented by Michael A. Garrett offers a thought-provoking exploration of the hypothesis that AI, particularly in the form of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), might be a "Great Filter" responsible for the apparent scarcity of advanced technological civilizations in the universe. The analysis is situated within the context of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) and the enduring mystery of the "Great Silence"—the non-detection of extraterrestrial technosignatures despite the seemingly conducive conditions for intelligent life.

The core hypothesis proposes that the rapid technological advancements in AI could culminate in existential threats that prevent civilizations from achieving a stable, multiplanetary existence. The paper cites an estimated typical longevity (L) of technological civilizations of less than 200 years, aligning with certain optimistic interpretations of the Drake Equation. These estimates correlate with the null results from SETI endeavors to detect technosignatures.

AI and the Fermi Paradox

Garrett's inquiry enters the discourse on the Fermi Paradox, which questions why, despite the high probability of alien life, we have yet to observe any evidence of it. AI is posited as a potential answer—acting as a self-limiting factor for civilizations due to its possible unforeseen consequences and the ethical challenges it presents. Notable figures like Stephen Hawking and Stuart Russell have acknowledged the transformative and possibly perilous impacts of AI and ASI development. These developments are proposed as universal challenges that could effectively suppress the emergence or progression of interstellar civilizations.

Technological Dynamics and the Likelihood of AI-Induced Collapse

The evaluation of AI as a great filter stems from the disparity between the rapid development of AI technologies and the significantly slower advancement of space-faring capabilities. Garrett suggests that civilizations, prior to establishing a multiplanetary presence, may experience their technological decline as AI evolves independently, presenting risks, such as autonomous weaponization or strategic dominance struggles, that could lead to their extinction.

Garrett asserts that should ASI be realized before humankind becomes multiplanetary, the lack of regulatory measures could precipitate our collapse. Consequently, the paper emphasizes the urgency of international collaborations to develop regulations that realistically anticipate AI's future capabilities and hazards. Theoretical constructs like the technological singularity illustrate these scenarios' rapid trajectory and support arguments for AI's potential impact across civilizations universally.

Implications and a Call for Regulatory Precautions

Within this analysis, AI is positioned not only as a harbinger of human development but also as a pivot of existential risk. The coherence of SETI's detection parameters with the notion of civilizations limited by short-lived technological capabilities bolsters the need for more robust regulatory mechanisms governing AI development. Through a focus on regulation, AI can be managed to ensure its benefits are harnessed while mitigating associated dangers.

The paper's conclusions highlight AI's potential to act as a great filter, emphasizing the urgent need for regulatory frameworks aligned with rapid technological evolution. AI's role as an existential threat is presented implicitly—not solely as a contemporary concern but as a timeless element affecting civilizations irrespective of their stage of advancement.

In summary, Garrett's work provides a substantial theoretical examination of AI in the context of the great filter hypothesis. The implications for the survival of intelligent civilizations emphasize the importance of forward-thinking global governance that recognizes AI as a critical factor in humanity's longevity both on Earth and as a budding interstellar presence. The outcomes projected here are critical considerations for AI's future, offering insight into its implications for the fate of civilization and consciousness across the galaxy.