Pairs Trading Using a Novel Graphical Matching Approach (2403.07998v1)

Abstract: Pairs trading, a strategy that capitalizes on price movements of asset pairs driven by similar factors, has gained significant popularity among traders. Common practice involves selecting highly cointegrated pairs to form a portfolio, which often leads to the inclusion of multiple pairs sharing common assets. This approach, while intuitive, inadvertently elevates portfolio variance and diminishes risk-adjusted returns by concentrating on a small number of highly cointegrated assets. Our study introduces an innovative pair selection method employing graphical matchings designed to tackle this challenge. We model all assets and their cointegration levels with a weighted graph, where edges signify pairs and their weights indicate the extent of cointegration. A portfolio of pairs is a subgraph of this graph. We construct a portfolio which is a maximum weighted matching of this graph to select pairs which have strong cointegration while simultaneously ensuring that there are no shared assets within any pair of pairs. This approach ensures each asset is included in just one pair, leading to a significantly lower variance in the matching-based portfolio compared to a baseline approach that selects pairs purely based on cointegration. Theoretical analysis and empirical testing using data from the S&P 500 between 2017 and 2023, affirm the efficacy of our method. Notably, our matching-based strategy showcases a marked improvement in risk-adjusted performance, evidenced by a gross Sharpe ratio of 1.23, a significant enhancement over the baseline value of 0.48 and market value of 0.59. Additionally, our approach demonstrates reduced trading costs attributable to lower turnover, alongside minimized single asset risk due to a more diversified asset base.