Repetitive Infection Spreading and Directed Evolution in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible Model (2403.07034v1)

Abstract: We study two simple mathematical models of the epidemic. At first, we study the repetitive infection spreading in a simplified SIRS model including the effect of the decay of the acquired immune. The model is an intermediate model of the SIRS model including the recruitment and death terms and the SIR model in which the recovered population is assumed to be never infected again. When the decay rate \delta of the immune is sufficiently small, the multiple infection spreading occurs in spikes. The model equation can be reduced to be a map when the decay rate \delta is sufficiently small, and the spike-like multiple infection spreading is reproduced in the mapping. The period-doubling bifurcation and chaos are found in the simplified SIRS model with seasonal variation. The nonlinear phenomena are reproduced by the map. Next, we study coupled SIRS equations for the directed evolution where the mutation is expressed with a diffusion-type term. A kind of reaction-diffusion equation is derived by the continuum approximation for the infected population I. The reaction-diffusion equation with the linear dependence of infection rate on the type space has an exact Gaussian solution with a time-dependent average and variance. The propagation of the Gaussian pulse corresponds to the successive transitions of the dominant variant.