Uncertainty quantification in the machine-learning inference from neutron star probability distribution to the equation of state (2401.12688v2)

Abstract: We discuss the machine-learning inference and uncertainty quantification for the equation of state (EoS) of the neutron star (NS) matter directly using the NS probability distribution from the observations. We previously proposed a prescription for uncertainty quantification based on ensemble learning by evaluating output variance from independently trained models. We adopt a different principle for uncertainty quantification to confirm the reliability of our previous results. To this end, we carry out the MC sampling of data to infer an EoS and take the convolution with the probability distribution of the observational data. In this newly proposed method, we can deal with arbitrary probability distribution not relying on the Gaussian approximation. We incorporate observational data from the recent multimessenger sources including precise mass measurements and radius measurements. We also quantify the importance of data augmentation and the effects of prior dependence.