Conformal Language Modeling (2306.10193v2)

Abstract: We propose a novel approach to conformal prediction for generative LLMs (LMs). Standard conformal prediction produces prediction sets -- in place of single predictions -- that have rigorous, statistical performance guarantees. LM responses are typically sampled from the model's predicted distribution over the large, combinatorial output space of natural language. Translating this process to conformal prediction, we calibrate a stopping rule for sampling different outputs from the LM that get added to a growing set of candidates until we are confident that the output set is sufficient. Since some samples may be low-quality, we also simultaneously calibrate and apply a rejection rule for removing candidates from the output set to reduce noise. Similar to conformal prediction, we prove that the sampled set returned by our procedure contains at least one acceptable answer with high probability, while still being empirically precise (i.e., small) on average. Furthermore, within this set of candidate responses, we show that we can also accurately identify subsets of individual components -- such as phrases or sentences -- that are each independently correct (e.g., that are not "hallucinations"), again with statistical guarantees. We demonstrate the promise of our approach on multiple tasks in open-domain question answering, text summarization, and radiology report generation using different LM variants.

Conformal LLMing

The paper entitled "Conformal LLMing" introduces a novel approach to applying conformal prediction principles to generative LLMs (LMs). This research offers a method to create prediction sets from LLM outputs that maintain rigorous statistical performance guarantees.

Conformal prediction is a statistical technique used to provide reliable prediction sets without strict distributional assumptions, traditionally applied in contexts like classification. The technique is adapted here to accommodate the inherently infinite and combinatorial output space of LMs, such as those used in natural language generation tasks. The proposed methodology centers around a principled stopping rule for sampling, coupled with a rejection rule designed to eliminate low-quality samples. This adaptation is necessary because typical conformal predictors cannot feasibly enumerate all candidate outputs in such expansive output domains.

The paper asserts that, by the end of the sampling process, the constructed set contains at least one acceptable answer with a high probability, thereby ensuring coverage. Importantly, the approach goes beyond this general assurance to identify specific, independently correct subsets of generated text, which is particularly significant given the susceptibility of LMs to producing hallucinated or incorrect content.

Key contributions of this work include:

1. Extension of Conformal Prediction: The paper extends traditional conformal prediction to work with generative models, notably modern LMs, overcoming the challenge of unbounded output spaces.
2. Practical Application: The researchers provide empirical validation across tasks in open-domain question answering, text summarization, and more domain-specific tasks such as radiology report generation. This showcases the applicability of the approach across varied contexts.
3. Theoretical Guarantees: The authors provide rigorous theoretical underpinnings that ensure the coverage properties of the conformal sets generated by their method, aligning with conventional conformal prediction methodologies while adapting them for generative settings.
4. Component Confidence: The work also addresses the challenge of phrase or sentence-level evaluation within LM outputs, which enables the identification of non-hallucinated, credible text segments.

The implications of this research are substantial. The ability to quantify uncertainty and provide confidence-backed output sets from LMs can significantly bolster their reliability and trustworthiness, especially in high-stakes or sensitive applications like medical diagnostics or law.

For future work, one potential direction is the integration of advanced evaluation metrics within the conformal framework to better handle varied and nuanced correctness criteria. Moreover, exploring alternative scoring and selection methods may further refine precision and efficiency. Finally, the consideration of cross-linguistic or multi-modal requirements presents a fertile avenue for research, particularly in aligning these models with more diverse dataset requirements and more complex input conditions.

Overall, this research contributes a pivotal step forward in bridging the gap between theoretical statistical guarantees and the practical deployment of large-scale LLMs, enhancing their robustness in real-world applications.