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On the robustness of posterior means

Published 15 Mar 2023 in math.ST, econ.EM, econ.TH, and stat.TH | (2303.08653v2)

Abstract: Consider a normal location model $X \mid \theta \sim N(\theta, \sigma2)$ with known $\sigma2$. Suppose $\theta \sim G_0$, where the prior $G_0$ has zero mean and variance bounded by $V$. Let $G_1$ be a possibly misspecified prior with zero mean and variance bounded by $V$. We show that the squared error Bayes risk of the posterior mean under $G_1$ is bounded, subjected to an additional tail condition on $G_1$, uniformly over $G_0, G_1, \sigma2 > 0$.

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