Endemic Oscillations for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron -- A SIRS model analysis (2211.09005v2)

Abstract: The SIRS model with constant vaccination and immunity waning rates is well known to show a transition from a disease-free to an endemic equilibrium as the basic reproduction number $r_0$ is raised above threshold. It is shown that this model maps to Hethcote's classic endemic model originally published in 1973. In this way one obtains unifying formulas for a whole class of models showing endemic bifurcation. In particular, if the vaccination rate is smaller than the recovery rate and $r_- < r_0 < r_+$ for certain upper and lower bounds $r_\pm$, then trajectories spiral into the endemic equilibrium via damped infection waves. Latest data of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant suggest that according to this simplified model continuous vaccination programs will not be capable to escape the oscillating endemic phase. However, in view of the strong damping factors predicted by the model, in reality these oscillations will certainly be overruled by time-dependent contact behaviors.