Picard rank jumps for K3 surfaces with bad reduction

Abstract: Let $X$ be a K3 surface over a number field. We prove that $X$ has infinitely many specializations where its Picard rank jumps, hence extending our previous work with Shankar--Shankar--Tang to the case where $X$ might have potentially bad reduction. We prove a similar result for generically ordinary non-isotrivial families of K3 surfaces over curves over $\overline{\mathbb{F}}_p$ which extends previous work of Maulik--Shankar--Tang. As a consequence, we give a new proof of the ordinary Hecke orbit conjecture for orthogonal and unitary Shimura varieties.