A Dutch book argument for belief consistency (2202.10121v1)

Abstract: An agent progressively learns about a state of the world. A bookmaker is ready to offer one bet after every new discovery. I say that the agent is Dutch-booked when she is willing to accept every single bet, but her expected payoff is negative under each state, where the expected payoff is computed with the objective probabilities of different discoveries conditional on the state. I introduce a rule of coherence among beliefs after counterfactual discoveries that is necessary and sufficient to avoid being Dutch-booked. This rule characterizes an agent who derives all her beliefs with Bayes rule from the same Lexicographic Conditional Probability System (Blume, Brandenburger and Dekel, 1991).