Review of the mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission (2109.08148v1)

Abstract: The mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission is elusive and its understanding, a prerequisite to forecast emerging variants, is of paramount importance. SARS-CoV-2 evolution is driven by the mechanisms at molecular and organism scales and regulated by the transmission pathways at the population scale. In this review, we show that infectivity-based natural selection was discovered as the mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission in July 2020. In April 2021, we proved beyond all doubt that such a natural selection via infectivity-based transmission pathway remained the sole mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 evolution. However, we reveal that antibody-disruptive co-mutations [Y449S, N501Y] debuted as a new vaccine-resistant transmission pathway of viral evolution in highly vaccinated populations a few months ago. Over one year ago, we foresaw that mutations spike protein RBD residues, 452 and 501, would "have high chances to mutate into significantly more infectious COVID-19 strains". Mutations on these residues underpin prevailing SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Theta, Kappa, Lambda, and Mu at present and are expected to be vital to emerging variants. We anticipate that viral evolution will combine RBD co-mutations at these two sites, creating future variants that are tens of times more infectious than the original SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, two complementary transmission pathways of viral evolution: infectivity and vaccine-resistant, will prolong our battle with COVID-19 for years. We predict that RBD co-mutation [A411S, L452R, T478K], [L452R, T478K, N501Y], [L452R, T478K, E484K, N501Y], [K417N, L452R, T478K], and [P384L, K417N, E484K, N501Y] will have high chances to grow into dominating variants due to their high infectivity and/or strong ability to break through current vaccines, calling for the development of new vaccines and antibody therapies.