Interplay between COVID-19 vaccines and social measures for ending the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (2103.06120v1)

Abstract: The development and authorization of COVID-19 vaccines has provided the clearest path forward to eliminate community spread hence end the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the limited pace at which the vaccine can be administered motivates the question, to what extent must we continue to adhere to social intervention measures such as mask wearing and social distancing? To address this question, we develop a mathematical model of COVID-19 spread incorporating both vaccine dynamics and socio-epidemiological parameters. We use this model to study two important measures of disease control and eradication, the effective reproductive number $R_t$ and the peak intensive care unit (ICU) caseload, over three key parameters: social measure adherence, vaccination rate, and vaccination coverage. Our results suggest that, due to the slow pace of vaccine administration, social measures must be maintained by a large proportion of the population until a sufficient proportion of the population becomes vaccinated for the pandemic to be eradicated. By contrast, with reduced adherence to social measures, hospital ICU cases will greatly exceed capacity, resulting in increased avoidable loss of life. These findings highlight the complex interplays involved between vaccination and social protective measures, and indicate the practical importance of continuing with extent social measures while vaccines are scaled up to allow the development of the herd immunity needed to end or control SARS-CoV-2 sustainably.