Incorporating Gas Pipeline Leakage Failure Modes in Risk Evaluation of Electricity-Gas Integrated Energy Systems (2011.00776v1)

Abstract: In the existing literatures for the risk evaluation of electricity-gas integrated energy system (EGIES), the impacts of gas leakage in pipelines are ignored. This paper presents a method to incorporate the failure modes of gas pipeline leakage in EGIES risk evaluation. A Markov state transition model of gas pipeline with multi-state and multi-mode transition process, and a bi-level Monte Carlo sampling method for this model are developed. A stochastic topology change based network model of EGIES considering the pipeline leakage failure modes is presented. The risk indices for EGIES based on the load shedding, including those specifically for gas leakage risks, are also proposed. An EGIES with a modified RBTS and a 7-node gas system was used to demonstrate an application of the proposed method and models. The results indicate that pipeline leakage failures have significant impacts on the risk of EGIES. Ignoring pipeline leakage failures in the risk evaluation of EGIES will result in an overly underestimation of system risk and most likely a misleading conclusion in system planning.