Housing Market Prediction Problem using Different Machine Learning Algorithms: A Case Study (2006.10092v1)

Abstract: Developing an accurate prediction model for housing prices is always needed for socio-economic development and well-being of citizens. In this paper, a diverse set of machine learning algorithms such as XGBoost, CatBoost, Random Forest, Lasso, Voting Regressor, and others, are being employed to predict the housing prices using public available datasets. The housing datasets of 62,723 records from January 2015 to November 2019 are obtained from Florida Volusia County Property Appraiser website. The records are publicly available and include the real estate or economic database, maps, and other associated information. The database is usually updated weekly according to the State of Florida regulations. Then, the housing price prediction models using machine learning techniques are developed and their regression model performances are compared. Finally, an improved housing price prediction model for assisting the housing market is proposed. Particularly, a house seller or buyer, or a real estate broker can get insight in making better-informed decisions considering the housing price prediction. The empirical results illustrate that based on prediction model performance, Coefficient of Determination (R2), Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and computational time, the XGBoost algorithm performs superior to the other models to predict the housing price.