How mobility patterns drive disease spread: A case study using public transit passenger card travel data

Abstract: Outbreaks of infectious diseases present a global threat to human health and are considered a major health-care challenge. One major driver for the rapid spatial spread of diseases is human mobility. In particular, the travel patterns of individuals determine their spreading potential to a great extent. These travel behaviors can be captured and modelled using novel location-based data sources, e.g., smart travel cards, social media, etc. Previous studies have shown that individuals who cannot be characterized by their most frequently visited locations spread diseases farther and faster; however, these studies are based on GPS data and mobile call records which have position uncertainty and do not capture explicit contacts. It is unclear if the same conclusions hold for large scale real-world transport networks. In this paper, we investigate how mobility patterns impact disease spread in a large-scale public transit network of empirical data traces. In contrast to previous findings, our results reveal that individuals with mobility patterns characterized by their most frequently visited locations and who typically travel large distances pose the highest spreading risk.