Dynamics of the COVID-1 -- Comparison between the Theoretical Predictions and the Real Data, and Predictions about Returning to Normal Life (2003.13540v7)

Abstract: A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a differential equation governing the evolution of the COVID-19. This dynamic equation also describes the evolution of the number of infected people for 13 common respiratory viruses (including the SARS-CoV-2). We validate our theoretical predictions with experimental data for Italy, Belgium and Luxembourg, and compare them with the predictions of the logistic model. We find that our predictions are in good agreement with the real world since the beginning of the appearance of the COVID-19; this is not the case for the logistic model that only applies to the first days. The second part of the work is devoted to modelling the descending phase, i.e. the decrease of the number of people tested positive for COVID-19. Also in this case, we propose a new set of dynamic differential equations that we solved numerically. We use our differential equations parametrised with experimental data to make several predictions, such as the date when Italy, Belgium, and Luxembourg will reach a peak number of SARS-CoV-2 infected people. The descending curves provide valuable information such as the duration of the COVID-19 epidemic in a given Country and therefore when it will be possible to return to normal life. The study of the the dynamics of COVID-19 when the population have been subject to less restrictive measures is beyond the scope of this work and it will be matter of future works.