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Precursors of the El Niño Phenomenon: A climate network analysis (2002.04530v1)
Published 3 Feb 2020 in physics.ao-ph
Abstract: The identification of precursors of climatic phenomena has enormous practical importance. Recent work constructs a climate network based on surface air temperature data to analyze the El Ni~no phenomena. We utilize microtransitions which occur before the discontinuous percolation transition in the network as well as other network quantities to identify a set of reliable precursors of El Ni~no episodes. These precursors identify nine out of twelve El Ni~no episodes occurring in the period of 1979 to 2018 with a lead time varying from six to ten months. We also find indicators of tipping events in the data.