Modeling the evolution and propagation of the 2017 September 9th and 10th CMEs and SEPs arriving at Mars constrained by remote-sensing and in-situ measurement (1803.00461v4)

Abstract: On 2017-09-10, solar energetic particles (SEPs) originating from the active region 12673 were registered as a ground level enhancement (GLE) at Earth and the biggest GLE on the surface of Mars as observed by the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) since the landing of the Curiosity rover in August 2012. Based on multi-point coronagraph images, we identify the initial 3D kinematics of an extremely fast CME and its shock front as well as another 2 CMEs launched hours earlier (with moderate speeds) using the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model. These three CMEs interacted as they propagated outwards into the heliosphere and merged into a complex interplanetary CME (ICME). The arrival of the shock and ICME at Mars caused a very significant Forbush Decrease (FD) seen by RAD only a few hours later than that at Earth which is about 0.5 AU closer to the Sun. We investigate the propagation of the three CMEs and the consequent ICME together with the shock using the Drag Based Model (DBM) and the WSA-ENLIL plus cone model constrained by the in-situ SEP and FD/shock onset timing. The synergistic modeling of the ICME and SEP arrivals at Earth and Mars suggests that in order to better predict potentially hazardous space weather impacts at Earth and other heliospheric locations for human exploration missions, it is essential to analyze 1) the CME kinematics, especially during their interactions and 2) the spatially and temporally varying heliospheric conditions, such as the evolution and propagation of the stream interaction regions.