Papers
Topics
Authors
Recent
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash
184 tokens/sec
GPT-4o
7 tokens/sec
Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
45 tokens/sec
o3 Pro
4 tokens/sec
GPT-4.1 Pro
38 tokens/sec
DeepSeek R1 via Azure Pro
28 tokens/sec
2000 character limit reached

Learning Representations for Counterfactual Inference (1605.03661v3)

Published 12 May 2016 in stat.ML, cs.AI, and cs.LG

Abstract: Observational studies are rising in importance due to the widespread accumulation of data in fields such as healthcare, education, employment and ecology. We consider the task of answering counterfactual questions such as, "Would this patient have lower blood sugar had she received a different medication?". We propose a new algorithmic framework for counterfactual inference which brings together ideas from domain adaptation and representation learning. In addition to a theoretical justification, we perform an empirical comparison with previous approaches to causal inference from observational data. Our deep learning algorithm significantly outperforms the previous state-of-the-art.

Citations (682)

Summary

  • The paper formulates counterfactual inference as a domain adaptation problem by balancing learned representations across treatment groups.
  • It employs a regularization technique using discrepancy distance to align feature distributions for improved causal estimation.
  • Empirical evaluations demonstrate that the Balancing Neural Network outperforms traditional models on both healthcare and user preference datasets.

Learning Representations for Counterfactual Inference

This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for counterfactual inference, integrating techniques from domain adaptation and representation learning. In the context of growing reliance on observational studies in areas like healthcare and ecology, addressing counterfactual queries such as "Would this patient have lower blood sugar had she received a different medication?" becomes crucial. The authors propose a novel algorithmic approach designed to enhance causality discovery from observational data.

Key Contributions

The authors formulate counterfactual inference as a domain adaptation problem, incorporating a balancing mechanism within representation learning. The approach employs a regularization technique that aligns the distributions of representations between various intervention groups. This is achieved through the use of the discrepancy distance, a measure tailored for domain adaptation contexts, enabling the model to better generalize across different treatment distributions.

Several algorithms are proposed under this framework:

  • A linear model balancing using variable selection and feature re-weighting.
  • A deep learning model that leverages neural networks to learn invariant representations across treatment groups.

Theoretical Contributions

A substantial theoretical underpinning is provided to justify the approach. The authors derive an upper bound on the regret term within the counterfactual regime using concepts from domain adaptation and discrepancy measures. This bound suggests learning balanced representations that minimize discrepancies while ensuring accurate factual predictions, thereby enhancing counterfactual estimation.

Empirical Evaluation

Empirical evaluations demonstrate significant improvements over existing state-of-the-art methods. The proposed deep learning algorithm, labeled as Balancing Neural Network (BNN), consistently outperforms traditional linear models, doubly robust methods, and tree-based algorithms such as Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART).

Two datasets are employed to validate the framework:

  • The Infant Health and Development Program (IHDP) dataset, a semi-simulated healthcare dataset evaluating cognitive test scores.
  • A novel dataset simulating user preferences on news articles viewed on different devices, which illustrates the algorithm's capability to handle high-dimensional feature spaces typical in real-world datasets.

Implications and Future Work

This framework challenges existing methodologies which largely rely on re-weighting samples to achieve balance. By focusing on representation learning to achieve balance, the authors present a compelling case for its applicability in high-stakes decision environments where accurate counterfactual estimation is needed.

The research opens avenues for further exploration into multi-treatment scenarios, the development of more efficient optimization algorithms, and leveraging richer, possibly non-linear, discrepancy measures. These enhancements may further solidify this approach as a robust tool for causal analysis in machine learning.

In conclusion, this paper provides a thoughtfully crafted algorithmic framework that not only contributes to the theoretical understanding of causal inference via domain adaptation but also demonstrates promising practical outcomes, thereby pushing the frontier of causal analysis in machine learning.

Youtube Logo Streamline Icon: https://streamlinehq.com