Variance estimation after matching or re-weighting (2506.11317v1)

Abstract: This paper develops a variance estimation framework for matching estimators that enables valid population inference for treatment effects. We provide theoretical analysis of a variance estimator that addresses key limitations in the existing literature. While Abadie and Imbens (2006) proposed a foundational variance estimator requiring matching for both treatment and control groups, this approach is computationally prohibitive and rarely used in practice. Our method provides a computationally feasible alternative that only requires matching treated units to controls while maintaining theoretical validity for population inference. We make three main contributions. First, we establish consistency and asymptotic normality for our variance estimator, proving its validity for average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) estimation in settings with small treated samples. Second, we develop a generalized theoretical framework with novel regularity conditions that significantly expand the class of matching procedures for which valid inference is available, including radius matching, M-nearest neighbor matching, and propensity score matching. Third, we demonstrate that our approach extends naturally to other causal inference estimators such as stable balancing weighting methods. Through simulation studies across different data generating processes, we show that our estimator maintains proper coverage rates while the state-of-the-art bootstrap method can exhibit substantial undercoverage (dropping from 95% to as low as 61%), particularly in settings with extensive control unit reuse. Our framework provides researchers with both theoretical guarantees and practical tools for conducting valid population inference across a wide range of causal inference applications. An R package implementing our method is available at https://github.com/jche/scmatch2.