Disentangling Barriers to Welfare Program Participation with Semiparametric and Mixed Effect Approaches (2506.03457v1)

Abstract: This paper examines why eligible households do not participate in welfare programs. Under the assumption that there exist some observed fully attentive groups, we model take-up as a two-stage process: attention followed by choice. We do so with two novel approaches. Drawing inspiration from the demand estimation for stochastically attentive consumers literature, Approach I is semiparametric with a nonparametric attention function and a parametric choice function. It uses fully attentive households to identify choice utility parameters and then uses the entire population to identify the attention probabilities. By augmenting Approach I with a random effect that simultaneously affects the attention and choice stages, Approach II allows household-level unobserved heterogeneity and dependence between attention and choice even after conditioning on observed covariates. Applied to NLSY panel data for WIC participation, both approaches consistently point to two empirical findings with regard to heterogeneous policy targeting. (1) As an infant ages towards 12 months and beyond, attention probability drops dramatically while choice probability steadily decreases. Finding (1) suggests that exit-prevention is the key for increasing the take-up rate because once a household exits the program when the infant ages close to 12 months old, it is unlikely to rejoin due to low attention. A value-increasing solution is predicted to be effective in promoting take-up by reducing exit probability. In contrast, an attention-raising solution is predicted to be ineffective. (2) Higher educated households are less attentive but more likely to enroll if attentive. Finding (2) suggests that running informational campaigns with parenting student groups at higher education institutions could be an effective strategy for boosting take-up.