Estimation of Treatment Harm Rate via Partitioning (2505.12209v1)

Abstract: In causal inference with binary outcomes, there is a growing interest in estimation of treatment harm rate (THR), which is a measure of treatment risk and reveals treatment effect heterogeneity in a subpopulation. The THR is generally non-identifiable even for randomized controlled trials (RCTs), and existing works focus primarily on the estimation of the THR under either untestable identification or ambiguous model assumptions. We develop a class of partitioning-based bounds for the THR based on data from RCTs with two distinct features: Our proposed bounds effectively use available auxiliary covariates information and the bounds can be consistently estimated without relying on any untestable or ambiguous model assumptions. Finite sample performances of our proposed interval estimators along with a conservatively extended confidence interval for the THR are evaluated through Monte Carlo simulation studies. An application of the proposed methods to the ACTG 175 data is presented. A Python package named partbte for the partitioning-based algorithm has been developed and is available on https://github.com/w62liang/partition-te.