Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Partially Observed McKean-Vlasov Diffusions Using Multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (2504.15588v1)

Abstract: In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to its solution, which include that the posterior density is numerically intractable in continuous-time, even if the transition probabilities are available and even when one uses a time-discretization, the posterior still cannot be used by adopting well-known computational methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). In this paper we provide a solution to this problem by using new MCMC algorithms which can solve the afore-mentioned issues. This MCMC algorithm is extended to use multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. We prove convergence bounds on our parameter estimators and show that the MLMC-based MCMC algorithm reduces the computational cost to achieve a mean square error versus ordinary MCMC by an order of magnitude. We numerically illustrate our results on two models.