Gauging Overprecision in LLMs: An Empirical Study (2504.12098v2)

Abstract: Recently, overconfidence in LLMs has garnered considerable attention due to its fundamental importance in quantifying the trustworthiness of LLM generation. However, existing approaches prompt the \textit{black box LLMs} to produce their confidence (\textit{verbalized confidence}), which can be subject to many biases and hallucinations. Inspired by a different aspect of overconfidence in cognitive science called \textit{overprecision}, we designed a framework for its study in black box LLMs. This framework contains three main phases: 1) generation, 2) refinement and 3) evaluation. In the generation phase we prompt the LLM to generate answers to numerical questions in the form of intervals with a certain level of confidence. This confidence level is imposed in the prompt and not required for the LLM to generate as in previous approaches. We use various prompting techniques and use the same prompt multiple times to gauge the effects of randomness in the generation process. In the refinement phase, answers from the previous phase are refined to generate better answers. The LLM answers are evaluated and studied in the evaluation phase to understand its internal workings. This study allowed us to gain various insights into LLM overprecision: 1) LLMs are highly uncalibrated for numerical tasks 2) there is no correlation between the length of the interval and the imposed confidence level, which can be symptomatic of a a) lack of understanding of the concept of confidence or b) inability to adjust self-confidence by following instructions, {3) LLM numerical precision differs depending on the task, scale of answer and prompting technique 4) Refinement of answers doesn't improve precision in most cases. We believe this study offers new perspectives on LLM overconfidence and serves as a strong baseline for overprecision in LLMs.