Meat-Free Day Reduces Greenhouse Gas Emissions but Poses Challenges for Customer Retention and Adherence to Dietary Guidelines (2504.02899v1)

Abstract: Reducing meat consumption is crucial for achieving global environmental and nutritional targets. Meat-Free Day (MFD) is a widely adopted strategy to address this challenge by encouraging plant-based diets through the removal of animal-based meals. We assessed the environmental, behavioral, and nutritional impacts of MFD by implementing 67 MFDs over 18 months (once a week on a randomly chosen day) across 12 cafeterias on a large university campus, analyzing over 400,000 food purchases. MFD reduced on-campus food-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on treated days by 52.9% and contributed to improved fiber (+26.9%) and cholesterol (-4.5%) consumption without altering caloric intake. These nutritional benefits were, however, accompanied by a 27.6% decrease in protein intake and a 34.2% increase in sugar consumption. Moreover, the increase in plant-based meals did not carry over to subsequent days, as evidenced by a 3.5% rebound in animal-based meal consumption on days immediately following treated days. MFD also led to a 16.8% drop in on-campus meal sales on treated days.Monte Carlo simulations suggest that if 8.7% of diners were to eat burgers off-campus on treated days, MFD's GHG savings would be fully negated. As our analysis identifies on-campus customer retention as the main challenge to MFD effectiveness, we recommend combining MFD with customer retention interventions to ensure environmental and nutritional benefits.