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Elite Political Discourse has Become More Toxic in Western Countries (2503.22411v1)

Published 28 Mar 2025 in cs.CL

Abstract: Toxic and uncivil politics is widely seen as a growing threat to democratic values and governance, yet our understanding of the drivers and evolution of political incivility remains limited. Leveraging a novel dataset of nearly 18 million Twitter messages from parliamentarians in 17 countries over five years, this paper systematically investigates whether politics internationally is becoming more uncivil, and what are the determinants of political incivility. Our analysis reveals a marked increase in toxic discourse among political elites, and that it is associated to radical-right parties and parties in opposition. Toxicity diminished markedly during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and, surprisingly, during election campaigns. Furthermore, our results indicate that posts relating to ``culture war'' topics, such as migration and LGBTQ+ rights, are substantially more toxic than debates focused on welfare or economic issues. These findings underscore a troubling shift in international democracies toward an erosion of constructive democratic dialogue.

Summary

Analysis of Increasing Toxicity in Elite Political Discourse

The paper examines the growing trend of toxic political discourse among elite politicians in Western countries, exploring its implications for democratic governance and social media usage. Utilizing a robust dataset encompassing nearly 18 million Twitter messages from parliamentarians across 17 countries over five years, the research provides a thorough empirical analysis of the trajectory and determinants of political incivility.

Key Findings

The analysis confirms a significant rise in toxic discourse among political elites internationally, which aligns with the public perception of increased hostility within political dialogues. Importantly, this longitudinal increase in toxicity remains robust even when controlling for factors such as radical-right parties' influences, suggesting a systemic shift in political norms, rather than being driven by isolated political factions or events.

The paper reveals an association between opposition parties and higher levels of toxicity, indicating that incivility serves as a strategic tool for political actors to challenge incumbents and rally support among their base. Conversely, toxicity noticeably decreases during election campaigns and major crises like the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that external circumstances can temporarily recalibrate norms of political communication.

Political Topics and Toxicity

A critical insight from the data is the higher toxicity associated with "culture war" topics such as migration, identity, and nationalism. These issues inherently involve questions of belonging and group boundaries, lending themselves to emotionally charged rhetoric that is more polarizing than the rational discourse typically surrounding economic or welfare matters.

The interplay between political parties and topics shows variances in incivility levels, corroborating the idea that the differential focus on issues contributes to the perceived toxicity of political communications. Parties' strategic emphasis on specific topics further illustrates the calculated nature of incivility as an engagement strategy in the digital age.

Methodological Approaches

This paper employs machine learning techniques for toxicity measurement, utilizing tools like the Perspective API to score Twitter messages based on their potential disruptive impact in discussions. Such quantitative methods validate the empirical investigation by providing a standardized framework to assess incivility across diverse linguistic and cultural contexts.

Implications and Future Directions

The rise in political toxicity across Western democracies poses substantial concerns for sustaining effective democratic dialogue and governance. The strategic deployment of incivility by political actors reflects broader shifts in media ecosystems and partisan polarization, emphasizing the need for addressing the structural incentives that favor hostile communication practices in the contemporary political landscape.

The findings underscore the necessity for reforms in social media algorithm design to mitigate the attention-driven tendencies that encourage inflammatory rhetoric. Future research should continue to explore the intersections between digital media technologies and political communication strategies to develop actionable interventions that can restore constructive dialogue norms.

Overall, the paper contributes significant empirical insights into the dynamics of political communication in the digital era, illuminating the challenges and opportunities for fostering healthier democratic practices amidst evolving media landscapes.