Probabilistic Flexibility Aggregation of DERs for Ancillary Services Provision (2503.15378v1)

Abstract: This paper presents a grid-aware probabilistic approach to compute the aggregated flexibility at the grid connection point (GCP) of active distribution networks (ADNs) to allow the participation of DERs in ancillary services (AS) markets. Specifically an optimal power flow (OPF) method using a linear network model is used to compute the aggregated capability for the provision of multiple AS. We start from the method proposed in [1] and extend it to allow for optimizing the provision of multiple services simultaneously, ensure cost-effectiveness of the used DERs and handle uncertainties in a probabilistic way. The allocation of individual DERs power flexibilities accounts for the operational costs associated to the provision of different services and ensures cost-effectiveness while maximizing the value of the advertised aggregated flexibility, assuming known service prices. Empirical uncertainty sets are obtained to achieve a predefined coverage of the probability distribution in line with recent developments in the Nordic AS markets. Finally, a feeder-decomposition approach is proposed to ensure the methods applicability to realistic distribution networks with a large number of buses. Different case studies show the effectiveness of the method, highlight the importance of accounting for network constraints and illustrate its applicability to realistic distribution systems.