Evolution of a trait distributed over a large fragmented population: Propagation of chaos meets adaptive dynamics (2503.13154v1)

Abstract: We consider a metapopulation made up of $K$ demes, each containing $N$ individuals bearing a heritable quantitative trait. Demes are connected by migration and undergo independent Moran processes with mutation and selection based on trait values. Mutation and migration rates are tuned so that each deme receives a migrant or a mutant in the same slow timescale and is thus essentially monomorphic at all times for the trait (adaptive dynamics). In the timescale of mutation/migration, the metapopulation can then be seen as a giant spatial Moran model with size $K$ that we characterize. As $K\to \infty$ and physical space becomes continuous, the empirical distribution of the trait (over the physical and trait spaces) evolves deterministically according to an integro-differential evolution equation. In this limit, the trait of every migrant is drawn from this global distribution, so that conditional on its initial state, traits from finitely many demes evolve independently (propagation of chaos). Under mean-field dispersal, the value $X_t$ of the trait at time $t$ and at any given location has a law denoted $\mu_t$ and a jump kernel with two terms: a mutation-fixation term and a migration-fixation term involving $\mu_{t-}$ (McKean-Vlasov equation). In the limit where mutations have small effects and migration is further slowed down accordingly, we obtain the convergence of $X$, in the new migration timescale, to the solution of a stochastic differential equation which can be referred to as a new canonical equation of adaptive dynamics. This equation includes an advection term representing selection, a diffusive term due to genetic drift, and a jump term, representing the effect of migration, to a state distributed according to its own law.