How do the professional players select their shot locations? An analysis of Field Goal Attempts via Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (2503.07789v1)

Abstract: Basketball analytics has significantly advanced our understanding of the game, with shot selection emerging as a critical factor in both individual and team performance. With the advent of player tracking technologies, a wealth of granular data on shot attempts has become available, enabling a deeper analysis of shooting behavior. However, modeling shot selection presents unique challenges due to the spatial and contextual complexities influencing shooting decisions. This paper introduces a novel approach to the analysis of basketball shot data, focusing on the spatial distribution of shot attempts, also known as intensity surfaces. We model these intensity surfaces using a Functional Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (FBART) framework, which allows for flexible, nonparametric regression, and uncertainty quantification while addressing the nonlinearity and nonstationarity inherent in shot selection patterns to provide a more accurate representation of the factors driving player performance; we further propose the Adaptive Functional Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (AFBART) model, which builds on FBART by introducing adaptive basis functions for improved computational efficiency and model fit. AFBART is particularly well suited for the analysis of two-dimensional shot intensity surfaces and provides a robust tool for uncovering latent patterns in shooting behavior. Through simulation studies and real-world applications to NBA player data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the model in quantifying shooting tendencies, improving performance predictions, and informing strategic decisions for coaches, players, and team managers. This work represents a significant step forward in the statistical modeling of basketball shot selection and its applications in optimizing game strategies.