CATPlan: Loss-based Collision Prediction in End-to-End Autonomous Driving (2503.07425v1)

Abstract: In recent years, there has been increased interest in the design, training, and evaluation of end-to-end autonomous driving (AD) systems. One often overlooked aspect is the uncertainty of planned trajectories predicted by these systems, despite awareness of their own uncertainty being key to achieve safety and robustness. We propose to estimate this uncertainty by adapting loss prediction from the uncertainty quantification literature. To this end, we introduce a novel light-weight module, dubbed CATPlan, that is trained to decode motion and planning embeddings into estimates of the collision loss used to partially supervise end-to-end AD systems. During inference, these estimates are interpreted as collision risk. We evaluate CATPlan on the safety-critical, nerf-based, closed-loop benchmark NeuroNCAP and find that it manages to detect collisions with a $54.8\%$ relative improvement to average precision over a GMM-based baseline in which the predicted trajectory is compared to the forecasted trajectories of other road users. Our findings indicate that the addition of CATPlan can lead to safer end-to-end AD systems and hope that our work will spark increased interest in uncertainty quantification for such systems.