Stochastic Epidemic Models with Partial Information (2503.07251v1)

Abstract: Mathematical models of epidemics often use compartmental models dividing the population into several compartments. Based on a microscopic setting describing the temporal evolution of the subpopulation sizes in the compartments by stochastic counting processes one can derive macroscopic models for large populations describing the average behavior by associated ordinary differential equations such as the celebrated SIR model. Further, diffusion approximations allow to address fluctuations from the average and to describe the state dynamics also for smaller populations by stochastic differential equations. In general, not all state variables are directly observable, and we face the so-called "dark figure" problem, which concerns, for example, the unknown number of asymptomatic and undetected infections. The present study addresses this problem by developing stochastic epidemic models that incorporate partial information about the current state of the epidemic, also known as nowcast uncertainty. Examples include a simple extension of the SIR model, a model for a disease with lifelong immunity after infection or vaccination, and a Covid-19 model. For the latter, we propose a ``cascade state approach'' that allows to exploit the information contained in formally hidden compartments with observable inflow but unobservable outflow. Furthermore, parameter estimation and calibration are performed using ridge regression for the Covid-19 model. The results of the numerical simulations illustrate the theoretical findings.