An Oxidation Gradient Straddling the Small Planet Radius Valley (2503.05055v1)

Abstract: We present a population-level view of volatile gas species (H$_2$, He, H$_2$O, O$_2$, CO, CO$_2$, CH$_4$) distribution during the sub-Neptune to rocky planet transition, revealing in detail the dynamic nature of small planet atmospheric compositions. Our novel model couples the atmospheric escape model $\texttt{IsoFATE}$ with the magma ocean-atmosphere equilibrium chemistry model $\texttt{Atmodeller}$ to simulate interior-atmosphere evolution over time for sub-Neptunes around G, K and M stars. Chiefly, our simulations reveal that atmospheric mass fractionation driven by escape and interior-atmosphere exchange conspire to create a distinct oxidation gradient straddling the small-planet radius valley. We discover a key mechanism in shaping the oxidation landscape is the dissolution of water into the molten mantle, which shields oxygen from early escape, buffers the escape rate, and leads to oxidized secondary atmospheres following mantle outgassing. Our simulations reproduce a prominent population of He-rich worlds along the upper edge of the radius valley, revealing that they are stable on shorter timescales than previously predicted. Our simulations also robustly predict a broad population of O$_2$-dominated atmospheres on close-in planets around low mass stars, posing a potential source of false positive biosignature detection and marking a high-priority opportunity for the first-ever atmospheric O$_2$ detection. We motivate future atmospheric characterization surveys by providing a target list of planet candidates predicted to have O$_2$-, He-, and deuterium-rich atmospheres.