Load Forecasting for Households and Energy Communities: Are Deep Learning Models Worth the Effort? (2501.05000v4)

Abstract: Energy communities (ECs) play a key role in enabling local demand shifting and enhancing self-sufficiency, as energy systems transition toward decentralized structures with high shares of renewable generation. To optimally operate them, accurate short-term load forecasting is essential, particularly for implementing demand-side management strategies. With the recent rise of deep learning methods, data-driven forecasting has gained significant attention, however, it remains insufficiently explored in many practical contexts. Therefore, this study evaluates the effectiveness of state-of-the-art deep learning models -- including LSTM, xLSTM, and Transformer architectures -- compared to traditional benchmarks such as K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and persistence forecasting, across varying community size, historical data availability, and model complexity. Additionally, we assess the benefits of transfer learning using publicly available synthetic load profiles. On average, transfer learning improves the normalized mean absolute error by 1.97%pt when only two months of training data are available. Interestingly, for less than six months of training data, simple persistence models outperform deep learning architectures in forecast accuracy. The practical value of improved forecasting is demonstrated using a mixed-integer linear programming optimization for ECs with a shared battery energy storage system. The most accurate deep learning model achieves an average reduction in financial energy costs of 8.06%. Notably, a simple KNN approach achieves average savings of 8.01%, making it a competitive and robust alternative. All implementations are publicly available to facilitate reproducibility. These findings offer actionable insights for ECs, and they highlight when the additional complexity of deep learning is warranted by performance gains.