Iwasawa theory and ranks of elliptic curves in quadratic twist families (2412.07308v2)

Abstract: We study the distribution of ranks of elliptic curves in quadratic twist families using Iwasawa-theoretic methods, contributing to the understanding of Goldfeld's conjecture. Given an elliptic curve $ E/\mathbb{Q} $ with good ordinary reduction at $ 2 $ and $ \lambda_2(E/\mathbb{Q}) = 0 $, we use Matsuno's Kida-type formula to construct quadratic twists $ E^{(d)} $ such that $ \lambda_2(E^{(d)}/\mathbb{Q}) $ remains unchanged or increases by $ 2 $. When the root number of $E^{(d)}$ is $-1$ and the Tate-Shafarevich group $Sha(E^{(d)}/\mathbb{Q})[2^\infty] $ is finite, this yields quadratic twists with Mordell--Weil rank $ 1 $. These results support the conjectural expectation that, on average, half of the quadratic twists in a family have rank $ 0 $ and half have rank $ 1 $. In the cases we consider we obtain asymptotic lower bounds for the number of twists by squarefree numbers $d\leq X$ which match with the conjectured value up to an explicit power of $\log X$. They complement recent groundbreaking results of Smith on Goldfeld's conjecture.