Robust Portfolio Selection under State-dependent Confidence Set

Abstract: This paper studies the robust portfolio selection problem under a state-dependent confidence set. The investor invests in a financial market with a risk-free asset and a risky asset. The ambiguity-averse investor faces uncertainty over the drift of the risky asset and updates posterior beliefs by Bayesian learning. The investor holds the belief that the unknown drift falls within a confidence set at a certain confidence level. The confidence set varies with both the observed state and time. By maximizing the expected CARA utility of terminal wealth under the worst-case scenario of the unknown drift, we derive and solve the associated HJBI equation. The robust optimal investment strategy is obtained in a semi-analytical form based on a PDE. We validate the existence and uniqueness of the PDE and demonstrate the optimality of the solution in the verification theorem. The robust optimal investment strategy consists of two components: myopic demand in the worst-case scenario and hedging demand. The robust optimal investment strategy is categorized into three regions: buying, selling, and small trading. Ambiguity aversion results in a more conservative robust optimal investment strategy. Additionally, with learning, the investor's uncertainty about the drift decreases over time, leading to increased risk exposure to the risky asset.