Confronting Conflicts to Yes: Untangling Wicked Problems with Open Design Systems (2409.10549v3)

Abstract: Current project development practices often fail to engage stakeholders early and effectively. Decision support is often non-inclusive, single-sided, and lacking in transparency, while complexity goes beyond human's comprehension. Additionally, many approaches focus primarily on technical system aspects, neglecting the integration of stakeholders' individual preferences. This often results in project impasses, leaving stakeholders unable to collaboratively achieve a "yes." There is a need for a purely associative, a-priori design approach that integrates system realities and stakeholder ideals within a joint socio-technical solution space. The state-of-the-art Preferendus, embedded in the proven Open Design Systems (Odesys) methodology, is a neutral tool for transforming complexity into success. Aiming for synthesis, Odesys' robust IMAP optimization method generates a single best-fit design solution. Here, Odesys is applied for a Dutch wind farm stalemate development, balancing multiple stakeholder preferences, wind farm performances, and project constraints. The success of this approach hinges on stakeholder trust and input. This article introduces a structured stakeholder assessment method using choice-based conjunctive analysis (CBCA), facilitating transparent determination of global and local stakeholder weights and preference functions. Modelling 'disputable' exogenous factors as endogenous design parameters, the application demonstrates how one can shift toward a collaborative "yes." For this, it is concluded that a zoomed-out solution space would enable the energy transition to be tackled with multiple options rather than a prescribed one. The Odesys approach fosters decision-making that aligns with the social threefold principles of freedom, equality, and fraternity, guiding projects toward genuine democratic outcomes rather than selecting from curated options.

• The paper presents the Preferendus engine as a novel method to co-create design solutions that balance technical constraints with stakeholder interests.
• It employs a structured stakeholder judgement approach using choice-based conjoint analysis to derive individualized preference metrics for conflict resolution.
• By modeling exogenous factors as endogenous design parameters, the method identifies conditions that make conflicts both technically and socially solvable.

The paper "Confronting Project Conflicts into Success: a Complex Systems Design Approach to Resolving Stalemates" addresses the challenges faced in complex project development, particularly related to stakeholder integration and conflict resolution. The authors argue that stakeholders are often engaged too late and that project processes tend to focus too narrowly on technical aspects, neglecting the diverse preferences and inputs of stakeholders. This narrow focus can lead to conflicts that are resolved on a technical basis, rather than through a more comprehensive social consensus.

The paper proposes the Preferendus, a computer-aided design engine incorporated within the Open Design Systems (Odesys) methodology, as a solution for these challenges. The Preferendus aims to integrate both the system's technical realities and stakeholders' interests from the onset of the project. It is designed to co-creatively generate solutions that achieve a balance between the many degrees of freedom inherent in project constraints and the objective functions of different stakeholders.

A key innovation presented in the paper is the structured stakeholder judgement approach, which utilizes a choice-based conjoint analysis (CBCA) method to derive individual stakeholder weights and initial estimates of their preference functions. This is crucial for ensuring transparency and inclusion in the decision-making process. By modeling disputable exogenous factors as endogenous design parameters, the paper also analyzes which factors make the stalemate technically and socially solvable or unsolvable. This dual focus helps in understanding how stakeholder interests and project realities can be aligned to avoid or resolve conflicts effectively.

In summary, the Preferendus within the Odesys framework offers a method to incorporate stakeholder preferences early in the project lifecycle, aiming to mitigate the risk of conflicts and enhance the probability of project success by aligning technical and social dimensions.