A Coupled Two-Tier Mathematical Transmission Model to Explore Virulence Evolution in Vector-Borne Diseases

Abstract: The emergence or adaptation of pathogens may lead to epidemics, highlighting the need for a thorough understanding of pathogen evolution. The tradeoff hypothesis suggests that virulence evolves to reach an optimal transmission intensity relative to the mortality caused by the disease. This study introduces a mathematical model that incorporates key factors such as recovery times and mortality rates, focusing on the diminishing effects of parasite growth on transmission, with a focus on vector-borne diseases. The analysis reveals conditions under which heightened virulence occurs in hosts, indicating that these factors can support vector-host transmission of a pathogen, even if the host-only component is insufficient for sustainable transmission. This insight helps explain the significant presence of pathogens with high fatality rates, such as those in vector-borne diseases. The findings underscore an elevated risk for future outbreaks involving such diseases. Enhanced surveillance of mortality rates and techniques to monitor pathogen evolution are vital to effectively control future epidemics. This study provides essential insights for epidemic preparedness and highlights the need for ongoing research into pathogen evolution.