Coupled Stochastic-Statistical Equations for Filtering Multiscale Turbulent Systems

Abstract: We present a new strategy for filtering high-dimensional multiscale systems characterized by high-order non-Gaussian statistics using observations from leading-order moments. A closed stochastic-statistical modeling framework suitable for systematic theoretical analysis and efficient numerical simulations is designed. Optimal filtering solutions are derived based on the explicit coupling structures of stochastic and statistical equations subject to linear operators, which satisfy an infinite-dimensional Kalman-Bucy filter with conditional Gaussian dynamics. To facilitate practical implementation, we develop a finite-dimensional stochastic filter model that approximates the optimal filter solution. We prove that this approximating filter effectively captures key non-Gaussian features, demonstrating consistent statistics with the optimal filter first in its analysis step update, then at the long-time limit guaranteeing stable convergence to the optimal filter. Finally, we build a practical ensemble filter algorithm based on the approximating filtering model, which enables accurate recovery of the true model statistics. The proposed modeling and filtering strategies are applicable to a wide range challenging problems in science and engineering, particularly for statistical prediction and uncertainty quantification of multiscale turbulent states.