Capacity Credit Evaluation of Generalized Energy Storage under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty (2406.07338v3)

Abstract: This paper proposes a novel capacity credit evaluation framework to quantify the contribution of generalized energy storage (GES) to resource adequacy, considering both decision-independent uncertainty (DIU) and decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU). To this end, we establish a market-oriented risk-averse re-dispatch method to capture the cross-market reliable operation of GES. The proposed method is sequentially implemented along with the Monte Carlo simulation process, coordinating the pre-dispatched price arbitrage and capacity withholding in the energy market with adequacy-oriented re-dispatch during capacity market calls. In addition to DIUs in operational states and baseline behavior, we explicitly address the inherent DDU of GES (i.e., the uncertainty of available discharge capacity affected by the incentives and accumulated discomfort) during the re-dispatch stage using the proposed adaptive data-driven chance-constrained approach. Furthermore, a capacity credit metric called equivalent storage capacity substitution is introduced to quantify the equivalent deterministic storage capacity of uncertain GES. Simulations on the modified IEEE RTS-79 benchmark system demonstrate that the proposed method yields accurate capacity credit and improved economic performance. Key factors impacting GES's capacity credit are discussed with insights into capacity market decision-making.