Inflation Models with Correlation and Skew (2405.05101v1)

Abstract: We formulate a forward inflation index model with multi-factor volatility structure featuring a parametric form that allows calibration to correlations between indices of different tenors observed in the market. Assuming the nominal interest rate follows a single factor Gaussian short rate model, we present analytical prices for zero-coupon and year-on-year swaps, caps, and floors. The same method applies to any interest rate model for which one can compute the zero-coupon bond prices and measure shifts. We extend the multi-factor model with leverage functions to capture the entire market volatility skew with a single process. The time-consuming calibration step of this model can be avoided in the simplified model that we further propose. We demonstrate the leveraged and the simplified models with market data.