Variability in Aggregate Personal Income Across Industrial Sectors During COVID-19 Shock: A Time-Series Exploration (2403.20039v1)
Abstract: This study explored the variability in Aggregate Personal Income (PI) across 13 major industrial sectors in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic. Utilizing time-series data from 2010 Q1 to 2019 Q4, we employed Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to establish baseline trends in Personal Income (PI) before the pandemic. We then extended these models to forecast PI values for the subsequent 14 quarters, from 2020 Q1 to 2023 Q2, as if the pandemic had never happened. This forecasted data was compared with the actual PI data collected during the pandemic to quantify its impacts. This approach allowed for the assessment of both immediate and extended effects of COVID-19 on sector-specific PI. Our study highlighted the resilience of PI in sectors like Utilities, Retail, Finance, Real Estate, and Healthcare, with Farming showing an early recovery in PI, despite significant initial setbacks. In contrast, PI in Accommodation and Food Services experienced delayed recovery, contributing significantly to the overall impact variance alongside Farming (53.26\% and 33.26\% respectively). Finance and Utilities demonstrated positive deviations, suggesting a lesser impact or potential benefit in early pandemic stages. Meanwhile, sectoral PI in Manufacturing, Wholesale and Education showed moderate recovery, whereas Construction and Government lagged in resilience. The aggregate economic impact, initially negative at -0.027 in 2020 Q1, drastically worsened to -1.42 in Q2, but improved by Q4, reflecting a broader trend of adaptation and resilience across all the sectors during the pandemic.
- The disparities on loss of employment income by US households during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, 1-19.
- Brenan, M. (2020). US employees increasingly seeing COVID-19 effects at work. Gallup.
- The US labor market during the beginning of the pandemic recession. National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w27159.
- COVID‐19 and the gender gap in work hours. Gender, Work & Organization, 28, 101-112.
- Gender inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic: Income, expenditure, savings, and job loss. World Development, 140, 105296.
- GDP, wellbeing, and health: thoughts on the 2017 round of the International Comparison Program. Review of Income and Wealth, 68(1), 1-15.
- Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(Supplement_1), S94-S137.
- Health outcomes and economic burden of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the United States. Journal of Medical Economics, 24(1), 308-317.
- How do state policies shape experiences of household income shocks and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic?. Social Science & Medicine, 269, 113557.
- Falling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries. Science advances, 7(6), eabe0997.
- Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020. Journal of public economics, 193, 104311.
- Income differences and COVID-19: Impact on daily life and mental health. Population Health Management, 25(3), 384-391.
- Income and Poverty in the COVID-19 Pandemic (No. w27729). National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Income and wealth shocks and expectations during the COVID-19 pandemic (No. 8244). CESifo working paper.
- Monitoring community responses to the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong: from day 10 to day 62. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 57(11), 864-870.
- Modestino, A. S. (2020). Coronavirus child-care crisis will set women back a generation. The Washington Post.
- Pew Research Center. (2020). Worries about coronavirus surge, as most Americans expect a recession - or worse. Pew Research Center.
- Income and poverty in the United States: 2020. US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, (P60-273).