Defining Expertise: Applications to Treatment Effect Estimation (2403.00694v1)

Abstract: Decision-makers are often experts of their domain and take actions based on their domain knowledge. Doctors, for instance, may prescribe treatments by predicting the likely outcome of each available treatment. Actions of an expert thus naturally encode part of their domain knowledge, and can help make inferences within the same domain: Knowing doctors try to prescribe the best treatment for their patients, we can tell treatments prescribed more frequently are likely to be more effective. Yet in machine learning, the fact that most decision-makers are experts is often overlooked, and "expertise" is seldom leveraged as an inductive bias. This is especially true for the literature on treatment effect estimation, where often the only assumption made about actions is that of overlap. In this paper, we argue that expertise - particularly the type of expertise the decision-makers of a domain are likely to have - can be informative in designing and selecting methods for treatment effect estimation. We formally define two types of expertise, predictive and prognostic, and demonstrate empirically that: (i) the prominent type of expertise in a domain significantly influences the performance of different methods in treatment effect estimation, and (ii) it is possible to predict the type of expertise present in a dataset, which can provide a quantitative basis for model selection.

• The paper defines predictive and prognostic expertise as distinct factors vital for determining optimal treatment effect estimation methods.
• It introduces an empirical framework that aligns estimation techniques with the specific expertise present in a dataset.
• The study presents an expertise-informed pipeline that improves model selection and estimation accuracy in practical applications.

Defining Expertise in Treatment Effect Estimation: A Comprehensive Analysis

Introduction to Expertise in Treatment Effect Estimation

The concept of leveraging decision-maker expertise, often overlooked in machine learning and specifically in treatment effect estimation, forms the cornerstone of a novel research effort by Alihan Huyuk et al. This paper ventures into formalizing and empirically analyzing the role of expertise in the context of treatment effect estimation. By dividing expertise into predictive and prognostic, the research elucidates how each type significantly impacts the efficacy of various treatment effect estimation methods. Additionally, this work explores predictive techniques for identifying the type of expertise present in a dataset, offering a pathway toward informed model selection in practical applications.

Expertise Formulation

The paper categorically distinguishes between predictive and prognostic expertise:

• Predictive Expertise: Decisions are solely based on the expected impact (treatment effect) of an action, independent of general outcome potentials.
• Prognostic Expertise: Decisions encompass a broader perspective, evaluating all potential outcomes beyond just the treatment effect.

This bifurcation is fundamental, as the nature of expertise prevalent in a dataset dictates the choice of treatment effect estimation methodology for optimal performance. The paper presents a quantitative basis for model selection by predicting the type of expertise a dataset embodies.

Empirical Evaluations

The empirical analysis conducted underscores the profound influence of expertise type on treatment effect estimation methods. Key findings from the experiments include:

• Models encoding predictive expertise outperform others in scenarios where decision-makers possess high predictive expertise but falter when prognostic expertise dominates.
• Conversely, methods incorporating prognostic expertise as an inductive bias excel in datasets where prognostic expertise prevails, underscoring the necessity of aligning model choice with the type of expertise present.
• The paper also introduces an "Expertise-informed" pipeline capable of estimating the predominant form of expertise within a dataset, thereby guiding the selection between predictive and prognostic methodologies.

Practical Implications and Theoretical Contributions

This research makes substantial contributions both theoretically by formalizing the notion of expertise in treatment effect estimation and practically by presenting a methodology for expertise estimation to inform model selection. It highlights the critical importance of understanding the expertise embedded within a dataset and appropriately aligning the estimation approach to harness this expertise. This alignment is essential for achieving accurate treatment effect estimates, especially in complex domains such as healthcare and education where decision-making carries significant implications.

Future Directions

Looking forward, this work paves the way for developing more sophisticated techniques for expertise identification and exploitation in treatment effect estimation. Further research might explore the integration of additional forms of expertise and the development of hybrid models capable of dynamically adjusting to the type and degree of expertise present in observational data. Additionally, extending these concepts to more complex, dynamic treatment regimes presents an intriguing avenue for exploration.

Conclusion

In summary, the paper "Defining Expertise: Applications to Treatment Effect Estimation" by Huyuk et al. advances our understanding of how expertise influences treatment effect estimation and offers a pragmatic approach for leveraging this insight in model selection. By recognizing the intrinsic value of expertise as an inductive bias, this work enhances the accuracy and applicability of treatment effect estimation methods across varied domains.