Parsimonious Generative Machine Learning for Non-Gaussian Tail Modeling and Risk-Neutral Distribution Extraction (2402.14368v2)

Abstract: In financial modeling problems, non-Gaussian tails exist widely in many circumstances. Among them, the accurate estimation of risk-neutral distribution (RND) from option prices is of great importance for researchers and practitioners. A precise RND can provide valuable information regarding the market's expectations, and can further help empirical asset pricing studies. This paper presents a parsimonious parametric approach to extract RNDs of underlying asset returns by using a generative machine learning model. The model incorporates the asymmetric heavy tails property of returns with a clever design. To calibrate the model, we design a Monte Carlo algorithm that has good capability with the assistance of modern machine learning computing tools. Numerically, the model fits Heston option prices well and captures the main shapes of implied volatility curves. Empirically, using S&P 500 index option prices, we demonstrate that the model outperforms some popular parametric density methods under mean absolute error. Furthermore, the skewness and kurtosis of RNDs extracted by our model are consistent with intuitive expectations. More generally, the proposed methodology is widely applicable in data fitting and probabilistic forecasting.