Mixed Gaussian Flow for Diverse Trajectory Prediction (2402.12238v1)

Abstract: Existing trajectory prediction studies intensively leverage generative models. Normalizing flow is one of the genres with the advantage of being invertible to derive the probability density of predicted trajectories. However, mapping from a standard Gaussian by a flow-based model hurts the capacity to capture complicated patterns of trajectories, ignoring the under-represented motion intentions in the training data. To solve the problem, we propose a flow-based model to transform a mixed Gaussian prior into the future trajectory manifold. The model shows a better capacity for generating diverse trajectory patterns. Also, by associating each sub-Gaussian with a certain subspace of trajectories, we can generate future trajectories with controllable motion intentions. In such a fashion, the flow-based model is not encouraged to simply seek the most likelihood of the intended manifold anymore but a family of controlled manifolds with explicit interpretability. Our proposed method is demonstrated to show state-of-the-art performance in the quantitative evaluation of sampling well-aligned trajectories in top-M generated candidates. We also demonstrate that it can generate diverse, controllable, and out-of-distribution trajectories. Code is available at https://github.com/mulplue/MGF.