Evaluating District-based Election Surveys with Synthetic Dirichlet Likelihood (2312.15179v1)

Abstract: In district-based multi-party elections, electors cast votes in their respective districts. In each district, the party with maximum votes wins the corresponding seat in the governing body. Election Surveys try to predict the election outcome (vote shares and seat shares of parties) by querying a random sample of electors. However, the survey results are often inconsistent with the actual results, which could be due to multiple reasons. The aim of this work is to estimate a posterior distribution over the possible outcomes of the election, given one or more survey results. This is achieved using a prior distribution over vote shares, election models to simulate the complete election from the vote share, and survey models to simulate survey results from a complete election. The desired posterior distribution over the space of possible outcomes is constructed using Synthetic Dirichlet Likelihoods, whose parameters are estimated from Monte Carlo sampling of elections using the election models. We further show the same approach can also use be used to evaluate the surveys - whether they were biased or not, based on the true outcome once it is known. Our work offers the first-ever probabilistic model to analyze district-based election surveys. We illustrate our approach with extensive experiments on real and simulated data of district-based political elections in India.