Papers
Topics
Authors
Recent
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash
158 tokens/sec
GPT-4o
7 tokens/sec
Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
45 tokens/sec
o3 Pro
4 tokens/sec
GPT-4.1 Pro
38 tokens/sec
DeepSeek R1 via Azure Pro
28 tokens/sec
2000 character limit reached

Decision-Making Frameworks for Network Resilience -- Managing and Mitigating Systemic (Cyber) Risk (2312.13884v3)

Published 21 Dec 2023 in q-fin.RM, cs.CR, cs.DM, cs.NI, cs.SY, and eess.SY

Abstract: We introduce a decision-making framework tailored for the management of systemic risk in networks. This framework is constructed upon three fundamental components: (1) a set of acceptable network configurations, (2) a set of interventions aimed at risk mitigation, and (3) a cost function quantifying the expenses associated with these interventions. While our discussion primarily revolves around the management of systemic cyber risks in digital networks, we concurrently draw parallels to risk management of other complex systems where analogous approaches may be adequate.

Definition Search Book Streamline Icon: https://streamlinehq.com
References (62)
  1. Hamed Amini, Rama Cont and Andreea Minca “Resilience to contagion in financial networks” In Mathematical Finance 26.2, 2016, pp. 329–365 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/mafi.12051
  2. Yeftanus Antonio, Sapto Wahyu Indratno and Rinovia Simanjuntak “Cyber Insurance Ratemaking: A Graph Mining Approach” In Risks 9.12, 2021 DOI: 10.3390/risks9120224
  3. “Multivariate Shortfall Risk Allocation and Systemic Risk” In SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics 9.1, 2018, pp. 90–126 DOI: 10.1137/16M1087357
  4. “Coherent Measures of Risk” In Mathematical Finance 9.3, 1999, pp. 203–228
  5. “Building Resilience in Cybersecurity” In Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2023
  6. “Modeling and pricing cyber insurance” In European Actuarial Journal 13, 2023, pp. 1–53
  7. “Contagion in cyber security attacks” In Journal of the Operational Research Society 68, 2017, pp. 780–791 DOI: 10.1057/jors.2016.37
  8. “Emergence of scaling in random networks” In Science 286, 1999, pp. 509–512
  9. Alain Barrat, Marc Barthélemy and Alessandro Vespignani “Dynamical Processes on Complex Networks” Cambridge University Press, 2008
  10. Yannick Bessy-Roland, Alexandre Boumezoued and Caroline Hillairet “Multivariate Hawkes process for cyber insurance” In Annals of Actuarial Science 15, 2021, pp. 14–39
  11. “A unified approach to systemic risk measures via acceptance sets” In Mathematical Finance 29.1, 2019, pp. 329–367 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/mafi.12170
  12. Alexandre Boumezoued, Yousra Cherkaoui and Caroline Hillairet “Cyber risk modeling using a two-phase Hawkes process with external excitation”, 2023 arXiv:2311.15701 [math.ST]
  13. Alex Cassidy, Zachary Feinstein and Arye Nehorai “Risk measures for power failures in transmission systems” In Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 26.11, 2016, pp. 113110 DOI: 10.1063/1.4967230
  14. Chen Chen, Garud Iyengar and Ciamac C. Moallemi “An Axiomatic Approach to Systemic Risk” In Management Science 59.6 INFORMS, 2013, pp. 1373–1388 URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/23443854
  15. “Cyber Network Resilience Against Self-Propagating Malware Attacks” In Computer Security – ESORICS 2022 Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022, pp. 531–550
  16. Stefano Chiaradonna, Petar Jevtić and Nicolas Lanchier “Framework for cyber risk loss distribution of hospital infrastructure: Bond percolation on mixed random graphs approach” In Risk Analysis, 2023
  17. Michel Dacorogna, Nehla Debbabi and Marie Kratz “Building up cyber resilience by better grasping cyber risk via a new algorithm for modelling heavy-tailed data” In European Journal of Operational Research 311.2, 2023, pp. 708–729 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2023.05.003
  18. “Managing cyber risk, a science in the making” In Scandinavian Actuarial Journal Taylor & Francis, 2023 DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2023.2191869
  19. “Systemic Risk in Networks” In Network Science. An Aerial View Springer, 2019, pp. 59–77
  20. “Directive (EU) 2022/2555 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 December 2022 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity across the Union, amending Regulation (EU) No 910/2014 and Directive (EU) 2018/1972, and repealing Directive (EU) 2016/1148 (NIS 2 Directive) (Text with EEA relevance)”, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/2022/2555, 2022 European Union
  21. Thomas M. Eisenbach, Anna Kovner and Michael Junho Lee “Cyber Risk and the U.S. Financial System: A Pre-Mortem Analysis”, 2021
  22. Larry Eisenberg and Thomas H. Noe “Systemic Risk in Financial Systems” In Management Science 47.2 INFORMS, 2001, pp. 236–249 URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2661572
  23. Martin Eling “Cyber risk research in business and actuarial science” In European Actuarial Journal Springer, 2020, pp. 1–31
  24. “Mitigating systemic cyber risk”, 2022 European Systemic Risk Board
  25. “Systemic cyber risk”, 2020 European Systemic Risk Board
  26. Ernesto Estrada, Naomichi Hatano and Michele Benzi “The physics of communicability in complex networks” In Physics Reports 514.3, 2012, pp. 89–119 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physrep.2012.01.006
  27. Tolulope Fadina, Yang Liu and Ruodu Wang “A Framework for Measures of Risk under Uncertainty”, 2023 arXiv:2110.10792 [q-fin.RM]
  28. Matthias Fahrenwaldt, Stefan Weber and Kerstin Weske “Pricing of cyber insurance contracts in a network model” In ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA 48.3, 2018, pp. 1175–1218
  29. Zachary Feinstein, Marcel Kleiber and Stefan Weber “Acceptable designs of traffic networks: stochastic cell transmission models and systemic risk”, 2023
  30. Zachary Feinstein, Birgit Rudloff and Stefan Weber “Measures of systemic risk” In SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics 8.1, 2017, pp. 672–708
  31. Hans Föllmer “Spatial risk measures and their local specification: The locally law-invariant case” In Statistics & Risk Modeling 31.1, 2014, pp. 79–101 DOI: doi:10.1515/strm-2013-5001
  32. “Spatial Risk Measures: Local Specification and Boundary Risk” In Stochastic Analysis and Applications 2014 Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014, pp. 307–326
  33. “Stochastic Finance: An Introduction in Discrete Time” Walter de Gruyter, 2016
  34. “The Axiomatic Approach to Risk Measures for Capital Determination” In Annual Review of Financial Economics 7.1, 2015, pp. 301–337 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-111914-042031
  35. “Systemic Cyber Risk: A Primer”, 2022
  36. “Handbook on Systemic Risk” Cambridge University Press, 2013 DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781139151184
  37. Axel Gandy and Luitgard A.M. Veraart “A Bayesian Methodology for Systemic Risk Assessment in Financial Networks” In Management Science 63.12, 2017, pp. 4428–4446 DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2016.2546
  38. “Community structure in social and biological networks” In Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 99.12 National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, 2002, pp. 7821–7826 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.122653799
  39. “Propagation of cyber incidents in an insurance portfolio: counting processes combined with compartmental epidemiological models” In Scandinavian Actuarial Journal Taylor & Francis, 2021, pp. 1–24
  40. “Cyber-contagion model with network structure applied to insurance” In Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 107, 2022, pp. 88–101
  41. Caroline Hillairet, Anthony Réveillac and Mathieu Rosenbaum “An expansion formula for Hawkes processes and application to cyber-insurance derivatives” In Stochastic Processes and their Applications 160, 2023, pp. 89–119 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spa.2023.02.012
  42. Hannes Hoffmann, Thilo Meyer-Brandis and Gregor Svindland “Risk-consistent conditional systemic risk measures” In Stochastic Processes and their Applications 126.7, 2016, pp. 2014–2037 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spa.2016.01.002
  43. Hannes Hoffmann, Thilo Meyer-Brandis and Gregor Svindland “Strongly consistent multivariate conditional risk measures” In Mathematics and Financial Economics 12, 2018, pp. 413–444
  44. Thomas R. Hurd “Contagion! Systemic Risk in Financial Networks” Springer, 2016 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-33930-6
  45. Matthew O. Jackson and Agathe Pernoud “Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: A Survey” In Annual Review of Economics 13.1, 2021, pp. 171–202 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-083120-111540
  46. “Dynamic structural percolation model of loss distribution for cyber risk of small and medium-sized enterprises for tree-based LAN topology” In Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 91, 2020, pp. 209–223
  47. István Z. Kiss, Joel C. Miller and Péter L. Simon “Mathematics of Epidemics on Networks” 46, Interdisciplinary Applied Mathematics Springer, 2017 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-50806-1
  48. “Finding shortest and nearly shortest path nodes in large substantially incomplete networks by hyperbolic mapping” In Nature Communications 14.186, 2023
  49. “Efficient Behavior of Small-World Networks” In Phys. Rev. Lett. 87 American Physical Society, 2001, pp. 198701 DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.87.198701
  50. “Cyber-insurance survey” In Computer Science Review, 2017
  51. “A critical point for random graphs with a given degree sequence” In Random Structures & Algorithms 6.2-3, 1995, pp. 161–180
  52. Mark Newman “Networks” Oxford University Press, 2018
  53. “Epidemic processes in complex networks” In Reviews of Modern Physics 87, 2015, pp. 925–979
  54. Derek de Solla Price “A general theory of bibliometric and other cumulative advantage processes” In Journal of the American Society for Information Science 27.5, 1976, pp. 292–306
  55. Derek de Solla Price “Networks of Scientific Papers” In Science 149.3683, 1965, pp. 510–515
  56. “Resilience Decision-Making for Complex Systems” In ASCE-ASME J Risk and Uncert in Engrg Sys Part B Mech Engrg 6.2, 2020, pp. 020901 DOI: 10.1115/1.4044907
  57. Chaoming Song, Shlomo Havlin and Hernán A. Makse “Self-similarity of complex networks” In Nature 433, 2005, pp. 392–395
  58. Jonathan W. Welburn and Aaron M. Strong “Systemic Cyber Risk and Aggregate Impacts” In Risk Analysis 42.8, 2022, pp. 1606–1622
  59. “Cybersecurity insurance: Modeling and pricing” In North American Actuarial Journal 23.2 Taylor & Francis, 2019, pp. 220–249
  60. “A comprehensive model for cyber risk based on marked point processes and its application to insurance” In European Actuarial Journal, 2021, pp. 1–53
  61. “Is Accumulation Risk In Cyber Systematically Underestimated?”, 2023
  62. “Risk mitigation services in cyber insurance: optimal contract design and price structure” In The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice 48, 2023, pp. 502–547

Summary

We haven't generated a summary for this paper yet.