Phases of the net-zero energy transition and strategies to achieve it (2311.09472v1)

Abstract: The net-zero energy transition is an extraordinary societal challenge. It requires a swift, radical and economy wide transformation. With the aim of informing research and policy, we identify general phases of this transition and the overarching strategies that may be brought to bear in tackling this challenge. Drawing from the literature on sustainability transition studies, we depict the net-zero energy transition as a non-linear, cumulative process that involves multiple, interdependent transitions in different sectors. Future emission targets can only be reached if policymaking will play a strong role in guiding these transitions. To understand the increasing complexity of the policy challenge, we distinguish four overlapping phases of development: emergence of low-carbon innovations, transition of a single sector (electricity), transitions of multiple sectors based on low-carbon electricity, and transitions in difficult-to-decarbonize sectors. We argue that each phase comes with new policy challenges on top of the already existing ones. Finally, we discuss the merits and limitations of five general strategies for decarbonization: efficiency improvement, low-carbon electrification, low-carbon fuels, negative emissions and "untapped demand-side approaches." While electrification has emerged as the dominant strategy, new low-carbon fuels (e.g., based on hydrogen) but also more radical changes (e.g., substitution of carbon-intensive products or lifestyle changes) merit further attention.