Uncertainty Quantification in Multivariable Regression for Material Property Prediction with Bayesian Neural Networks (2311.02495v4)

Abstract: With the increased use of data-driven approaches and machine learning-based methods in material science, the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predicted variables for informed decision-making cannot be overstated. UQ in material property prediction poses unique challenges, including the multi-scale and multi-physics nature of advanced materials, intricate interactions between numerous factors, limited availability of large curated datasets for model training, etc. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have emerged as a promising approach for UQ, offering a probabilistic framework for capturing uncertainties within neural networks. In this work, we introduce an approach for UQ within physics-informed BNNs, which integrates knowledge from governing laws in material modeling to guide the models toward physically consistent predictions. To evaluate the effectiveness of this approach, we present case studies for predicting the creep rupture life of steel alloys. Experimental validation with three datasets of collected measurements from creep tests demonstrates the ability of BNNs to produce accurate point and uncertainty estimates that are competitive or exceed the performance of the conventional method of Gaussian Process Regression. Similarly, we evaluated the suitability of BNNs for UQ in an active learning application and reported competitive performance. The most promising framework for creep life prediction is BNNs based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior distribution of network parameters, as it provided more reliable results in comparison to BNNs based on variational inference approximation or related NNs with probabilistic outputs. The codes are available at: https://github.com/avakanski/Creep-uncertainty-quantification.