Effective growth rates in a periodically changing environment: From mutation to invasion (2310.20509v2)

Abstract: We consider a stochastic individual-based model of adaptive dynamics for an asexually reproducing population with mutation, with linear birth and death rates, as well as a density-dependent competition. To depict repeating changes of the environment, all of these parameters vary over time as piecewise constant and periodic functions, on an intermediate time-scale between those of stabilization of the resident population (fast) and exponential growth of mutants (slow). Studying the growth of emergent mutants and their invasion of the resident population in the limit of small mutation rates for a simultaneously diverging population size, we are able to determine their effective growth rates. We describe this growth as a mesoscopic scaling-limit of the orders of population sizes, where we observe an averaging effect of the invasion fitness. Moreover, we prove a limit result for the sequence of consecutive macroscopic resident traits that is similar to the so-called trait-substitution-sequence.