Properties and Deviations of Random Sums of Densely Dependent Random Variables

Abstract: A classical problem of statistical inference is the valid specification of a model that can account for the statistical dependencies between observations when the true structure is dense, intractable, or unknown. To address this problem, a new variance identity is presented, which is closely related to the Moulton factor. This identity does not require the specification of an entire covariance structure and instead relies on the choice of two summary constants. Using this result, a weak law of large numbers is also established for additive statistics and common variance estimators under very general conditions of statistical dependence. Furthermore, this paper proves a sharper version of Hoeffding's inequality for symmetric and bounded random variables under these same conditions of statistical dependence. Put otherwise, it is shown that, under relatively mild conditions, finite sample inference is possible in common settings such as linear regression, and even when every outcome variable is statistically dependent with all others. All results are extended to estimating equations. Simulation experiments and an application to climate data are also provided.