Network Sampling Methods for Estimating Social Networks, Population Percentages, and Totals of People Experiencing Unsheltered Homelessness (2309.03875v2)

Abstract: In this article, we propose using network-based sampling strategies to estimate the number of unsheltered people experiencing homelessness within a given administrative service unit, known as a Continuum of Care. We demonstrate the effectiveness of network sampling methods to solve this problem. Here, we focus on Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS), which has been shown to provide unbiased or low-biased estimates of totals and proportions for hard-to-reach populations in contexts where a sampling frame (e.g., housing addresses) is not available. To make the RDS estimator work for estimating the total number of people living unsheltered, we introduce a new method that leverages administrative data from the HUD-mandated Homeless Management Information System (HMIS). The HMIS provides high-quality counts and demographics for people experiencing homelessness who sleep in emergency shelters. We then demonstrate this method using network data collected in Nashville, TN, combined with simulation methods to illustrate the efficacy of this approach and introduce a method for performing a power analysis to find the optimal sample size in this setting. We conclude with the RDS unsheltered PIT count conducted by King County Regional Homelessness Authority in 2022 (data publicly available on the HUD website) and perform a comparative analysis between the 2022 RDS estimate of unsheltered people experiencing homelessness and an ARIMA forecast of the visual unsheltered PIT count. Finally, we discuss how this method works for estimating the unsheltered population of people experiencing homelessness and future areas of research.